Obesity-linked heart disease could kill 170,000 in England by 2035 if current trends persist, the British Heart Foundation (BHF) has warned, a toll equivalent to approximately 45 deaths every day over the coming decade.
The charity’s analysis, based on Global Burden of Disease data, found that excess weight already accounted for 16,156 cardiovascular deaths in England in 2023. Each year, roughly one in nine cardiovascular deaths in the country is attributable to carrying too much weight.
Excess weight sets the stage for heart attacks and strokes through a well-understood biological pathway. The BHF explains that it raises the risk of fatty deposits building up inside the arteries, gradually narrowing them and restricting blood flow to the heart and brain. When these deposits rupture, they can trigger a clot that blocks the artery entirely, leading to a heart attack or stroke. Obesity also drives up blood pressure and cholesterol levels and increases the likelihood of developing type 2 diabetes — all of which place additional strain on the cardiovascular system.
The toll on younger generations
A separate study published in The Lancet, led by scientists at the University of Cambridge, shows that new obesity diagnoses are rising fastest among young adults. Cases among people in their 30s were nearly 20 per cent higher in 2024-25 than in 2019-20, while those in their 20s saw a 16 per cent increase. Researchers attribute these trends to a food environment defined by a proliferation of fast-food outlets and aggressive advertising, compounded by the disruption of the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis.
The broader picture is stark. Data from the Health Survey for England indicates that 64.5 per cent of adults aged 18 and over were overweight or living with obesity in 2023-24, with 26.5 per cent classified as obese — a figure that has been climbing since 2015-16. Among children, the National Child Measurement Programme reports that 9.6 per cent of reception‑aged children (4-5 years) were obese in 2023-24, with a further 12.4 per cent overweight. By Year 6 (10-11 years), 22.1 per cent were obese and 13.8 per cent overweight.
There are sharp inequalities. Children living in the most deprived tenth of areas are roughly twice as likely to be obese as those in the least deprived areas, and earlier onset of obesity is more common among ethnic minorities. The economic burden of obesity-related ill health costs the NHS an estimated £6.5 billion a year, with indirect costs to the wider economy put at £27 billion.
Government response and potential solutions
BHF chief executive Dr Charmaine Griffiths warned that without sustained action the UK could “drift further into an obesity crisis with severe consequences”, leaving tens of thousands of families to lose relatives. She called for more decisive government action, noting that past promises of a “healthy food revolution” have yet to translate into concrete policy.
Katharine Jenner of the Obesity Health Alliance echoed the warning, urging ministers to set firm targets for food businesses to improve the nutritional quality of their products.
One year has passed since the government announced plans for a Healthy Food Standard, and pressure is mounting on ministers to publish consultations on mandatory health reporting and bring forward legislation within the current parliamentary term. Under the proposed system, large food companies would be required to report on the healthiness of their sales, and mandatory targets would be set to increase the proportion of healthier food they sell. Businesses would have flexibility in how they meet those targets — through reformulation, changing store layouts or promoting healthier options — but a consultation is still awaited, and legislation is unlikely before 2029.
Other policy levers include restrictions on junk food advertising on television before 9 pm and online, new powers for local authorities to prevent fast‑food shops opening near schools, a consultation on banning high‑caffeine energy drinks for under‑16s, and revised school food standards to ensure nutritious meals for children.
The rollout of weight‑loss medication is also seen as a potentially important tool. The semaglutide tablet (Wegovy) has been approved by the MHRA for weight management in adults with obesity or overweight who also have a weight‑related condition, though it will not be available on the NHS until assessed by NICE, meaning private prescriptions are currently necessary. The most prescribed weight‑loss drug in the UK, Mounjaro (tirzepatide), is accessible on the NHS only for patients with a BMI above 40 kg/m² and multiple obesity‑related comorbidities. The government has funded £85 million in pilot programmes to simplify access to obesity care, including medication, through technology and new treatment pathways. A significant number of patients, particularly in London, are already accessing these drugs privately owing to slower NHS rollouts and strict eligibility criteria.
Cardiovascular disease remains one of the country’s leading killers, and obesity is a major contributing factor. The BHF’s projections serve as a stark warning that without meaningful intervention the human cost will continue to mount — particularly among younger adults now being diagnosed at accelerating rates, who will face decades of elevated risk.