Two areas close to a factory in Lancashire that released known carcinogenic “forever chemicals” for decades have recorded higher-than-expected rates of kidney cancer, according to a government-backed screening study. The findings have triggered a dispute between the official investigators and independent experts, who say the conclusions downplay a potential link to contamination.
Study found elevated kidney cancer in two localities
A multi-agency health cell, comprising experts from Lancashire County Council, the UK Health Security Agency, NHS partners, the National Disease Registration Service, Wyre Council and the Environment Agency, reviewed cancer incidence between 2003 and 2022 within a three-mile (5 km) radius of the AGC Chemicals Europe plant in Thornton-Cleveleys, near Blackpool. The factory released an estimated 49 tonnes of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) into the air between the 1950s and 2012, when the substance – globally banned in 2020 – was finally phased out from its manufacturing processes. Further emissions also contaminated water, soils and landfill, with total releases estimated at 115 tonnes.
The initial screening identified no higher-than-expected rates for most cancers. However, two small geographic areas – one south-east of the factory and one north of Blackpool – recorded “higher-than-expected” rates of kidney cancer, a disease that international research has linked to PFOA exposure. A more detailed review then examined those cases but found no evidence of a statistically significant excess, no cancer cluster and no indication of an environmental association. The report concluded: “No further cluster investigation is warranted at this stage.” Officials described the pattern as consistent with random variation in a small population.
Experts challenge ‘contradictory’ conclusions
Dr David Megson, a forensic environmental scientist at Manchester Metropolitan University who was not involved in the study, called the conclusion “very contradictory”. He said it “seems to downplay the findings rather than assess it objectively”. Having read the full report, he noted that it had clearly identified a higher-than-expected number of kidney cancer cases in close proximity to a factory that “released chemicals that are known human carcinogens, with links specifically to kidney cancer. This to me is a major source of concern.”
The report suggests the elevated rates could be due to random variation because of the small sample size, but Dr Megson argued there was “plenty of other evidence that indicates that this is not the case”. He pointed to “a large number of limitations acknowledged in their report” and said those should be “properly considered before concluding there has not been an impact”. He added: “If a portion of land is designated as contaminated, it means there is a significant possibility of significant harm. Personally, I fear that this data is giving us strong evidence that the significant possibility has been realised, and that significant harm has already been caused.”
Dr Dan Middleton, a senior lecturer in environmental cancer epidemiology at Queen’s University Belfast, also urged caution. He said he would be wary of interpreting the findings as meaning no further investigation was needed, “particularly given that kidney cancer is one of the cancers most consistently linked to Pfoa exposure”. He added: “The observed findings should not simply be dismissed, and further evidence, particularly around historical exposures, would help place these results in their proper context.”
Dr Tony Fletcher, an epidemiologist and global PFAS expert at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, acknowledged that the excess was small and not statistically significant in most cases. However, he said the results were “entirely consistent with a small increase in risk due to [PFOA] exposure”. All three experts called for more research, including blood testing for PFOA – something Dr Middleton described as the “missing link” in the study.
The scientific case linking PFOA to kidney cancer is well established. The World Health Organisation classified PFOA as a human carcinogen in 2023. The C8 Health Project, one of the largest studies on the chemical, found a clear association between high PFOA levels in drinking water and significantly increased kidney cancer incidence. Research on military personnel at contaminated bases and international studies have shown similar links. A meta-analysis indicated a probable link between PFOA and kidney cancer, with an average increase in risk per unit increase in serum PFOA, though some recent analyses suggest the evidence remains inconclusive, with any increased risk likely small.
Environmental contamination and resident advisories
Separate environmental tests have confirmed widespread contamination around the factory. The Environment Agency has advised residents living within one kilometre of the plant not to eat fruit, vegetables or eggs produced in the area unless they are thoroughly washed and peeled to remove soil and dust. An allotment on Occupation Road, on the factory border, has been closed and officially classified as “Contaminated Land” after testing found elevated PFOA in the soil and produce. A second allotment at Sandringham Avenue has also been closed as a precautionary measure.
High concentrations of PFAS, including PFOA, have been detected in effluent discharged from the factory into the River Wyre, an ecologically protected site. Independent sampling has also found EEA-NH4, a PFAS produced and emitted by AGC Chemicals that is classified as reprotoxic, in soils around the factory. Concerns have been raised that regulators are not testing for this chemical, and that the Environment Agency may lack the resources to properly monitor contamination. The UK has been criticised for falling behind other countries in regulating PFAS.
Legal action and company response
The law firm Leigh Day is investigating potential legal claims against AGC Chemicals Europe on behalf of residents in Thornton-Cleveleys. As part of this, the firm is planning to offer blood testing to residents. Sarah Moore, a partner at Leigh Day, said the firm would work with its expert team to “fully understand these results over the coming months, as we offer members of the community Pfas blood tests if they wish to obtain a fuller picture about their personal exposure levels”.
The multi-agency health group has maintained its position, stating: “In line with national guidance, the health cell has concluded that there is no evidence of a kidney cancer cluster and no indication of a link to environmental contamination, and that no further investigation is required at this stage.”
AGC Chemicals Europe did not respond to a request for comment. A company spokesperson has previously told the BBC that all its chemical processes were “rigorously monitored and controlled and compliant with current UK and EU environmental laws and regulations” and that it took its responsibilities to protect environmental health “extremely seriously”. The company is also conducting its own voluntary investigation on its land, testing for PFOA, other PFAS and historical substances such as chlorinated solvents and mercury.