The world is hurtling towards a cancer care catastrophe, with a projected shortage of 100 million healthcare workers by 2050 at the same time as nearly 100,000 people are being diagnosed with the disease every day, researchers have warned. The twin pressures of a ballooning cancer burden and a collapsing workforce threaten to overwhelm health systems globally, leaving patients facing drastically longer waits for diagnosis and treatment.
The warning comes from a major report presented at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s (ASCO) annual meeting in Chicago – held from 31 May to 4 June 2024 at McCormick Place – and published in The Lancet. The report projects that by 2050 the number of new cancer cases each year will reach 35.3 million, up from roughly 20 million diagnosed in 2022. That represents a 21% increase in incidence from 2025, when the rate stood at 165 per 100,000 people, climbing to 200 per 100,000 by mid-century. Annual cancer deaths are expected to rise to 18.5 million.
Currently, one in three cancer cases worldwide goes undiagnosed, the report says, with the figure as high as 60% in parts of Africa. Without a diagnosis, patients have a far lower chance of survival. In high-income countries, where survival rates have improved substantially thanks to new treatments and earlier detection, the gains are now at risk: the report warns that even these nations – where survival is predicted to exceed 60% by 2050 – will see their ability to improve outcomes compromised by the workforce crisis.
The workforce gap in detail
The projected shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers is not evenly spread. The largest gaps are expected in nursing – around 65 million – and in diagnostic staff, including radiologists and pathologists, at about 16 million. These are the very professionals needed to spot cancers early and deliver treatment.
The crisis is already being felt in the United Kingdom. The Royal College of Radiologists estimates a 15% shortfall in the clinical oncology workforce, projected to rise to 19% by 2029. Staff retention is a mounting concern, with experienced healthcare professionals leaving the National Health Service at younger ages than before. Cancer Research UK has pointed to chronic underinvestment and a failure in workforce planning over the past decade, while warning that the UK’s diagnostic technology and oncology workforce lag behind comparable countries, contributing to long waiting times. The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan is seen as a step in the right direction, but questions remain over whether it is sufficient to address both recruitment and retention challenges and secure long-term funding.
Co-author Professor Mark Lawler, a professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and scientific director of DATA-CAN, the UK’s Health Data Research Hub for Cancer, described the findings as “sobering”. Addressing the ASCO meeting, he said: “The predicted 35 million cancer cases each year globally is in sharp contrast to the projected global shortfall of 100 million cancer care workers by 2050. Make no mistake, this is a wake-up call, no matter where you are in the world. What we’ve uncovered is shocking – how can we reconcile a 15 million increase in cancer cases diagnosed with a 100 million decrease in cancer staffing? The data unfortunately do not lie. We can’t wait until 2050 to see if our projections are correct – we must act now.”
What can be done
The report offers a set of urgent recommendations to avert disaster. It calls for the implementation of national cancer control plans that embed workforce development; investment in technology, education and staff retention; expansion of regional and international partnerships; and sustainable financing through public-private partnerships.
Dr Hedvig Hricak, chair emeritus at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York and co-lead of the report, stressed the need for smarter use of existing staff. “We call for immediate, country-specific strategies, smarter workforce use, task-shifting and AI/digital health adoption, alongside future-ready education and strong, sustainable financing through public-private partnerships,” she said. Task-shifting – redistributing tasks to healthcare professionals with fewer formal qualifications – is seen as one way to optimise system performance while shortages persist. Artificial intelligence and digital health tools are also highlighted as crucial to easing the burden on diagnostic and clinical staff.
Dr Peter Kingham, a surgical oncologist who directs Memorial Sloan Kettering’s global cancer research and training programme and is another co-author, emphasised that prevention must be a priority. Promoting healthier diets, countering sedentary lifestyles, and tackling smoking, obesity and alcohol consumption could prevent more than a third of cancers, the report notes – and in the UK around 40% of cancers are considered preventable. “Cancer is fundamentally a disease of ageing,” Dr Kingham said. “As global life expectancy rises and conditions such as HIV are managed as chronic rather than terminal illnesses, more people worldwide are living long enough to face a cancer risk. This demographic shift is not a failure – it reflects remarkable progress in global health, but it demands an equally ambitious response in cancer care.”
The economic case for acting now is stark. According to the report, investing in the cancer workforce could avert 170 million cancer deaths between 2030 and 2050 and deliver approximately $120 trillion (around £89 trillion) in net economic benefits. Without that investment, the world will be left unable to treat the very patients it has succeeded in keeping alive longer.