Manifestos published by the six parties contesting next month’s Senedd election have been criticised for failing to be “upfront” about the scale of the fiscal challenges awaiting the next Welsh government. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that analysis of the documents revealed “virtually no detail” on how spending commitments would be funded, while major public investment plans would require either expensive upfront private finance or increased borrowing powers that currently lie beyond Wales’s own budget.
Manifestos criticised for lack of fiscal transparency
The criticism applies across the political spectrum. The IFS singled out the manifestos of Reform UK, Plaid Cymru and Welsh Labour as offering almost no explanation of how their pledges would be paid for. David Phillips, head of devolved and local government finance at the IFS, warned that a combination of a slowdown in increases to UK government funding and rising demands and costs for health and social care meant the Welsh budget would come under significant pressure. “Voters are already unhappy after years of only slow economic growth, a rising cost of living, and public services that have failed to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic,” he said. “But the next Welsh government will have to face up to it.”
While most parties pledge to improve the NHS and schools, there is a notable absence of financial specifics. The IFS noted that the current Welsh government has not published spending plans beyond 2026-27, leaving it unclear which services might face cuts. Big-ticket promises — such as Labour’s £4 billion “Hospitals of the Future Fund”, Reform UK’s £1 billion plan to return NHS waiting lists to pre-pandemic levels, and Plaid Cymru’s “radical plan” to renew the health service — are set against a backdrop of constrained budgets. On taxation, parties are split: the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK each propose a 1p cut to income tax, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats propose a 1p increase as an emergency measure for social care. Labour has pledged not to raise income tax rates. The IFS has made clear that none of these positions are accompanied by detailed costing that accounts for the looming pressure on public finances.
Party standings and coalition prospects
Polls suggest that either Plaid Cymru or Reform UK will emerge as the largest party in the Senedd after the 7 May election, with Welsh Labour — which has governed Wales for nearly three decades — trailing in a distant third. The contraction of Labour’s traditional support coincides with an expansion of the Senedd itself: the number of members will increase from 60 to 96 seats under a new “closed proportional list” voting system. Voters aged 16 and over will have a single vote for a party or independent candidate within 16 new constituencies, each returning six Members of the Senedd. The next election is scheduled for 2030 under a four-year cycle. At least 51 MSs will be newly elected, as fifteen current members are not standing again.
Coalition arithmetic points to Plaid Cymru as the only party likely to be able to form a government, potentially in coalition with the Greens or with Labour. Both Plaid Cymru and the Green Party support Welsh independence, though they say it will not be a priority in the next parliament. The Welsh Liberal Democrats have made “stop independence” a red line, stating they will not spend any Welsh government money on the independence agenda. The electoral calculus increases the stakes for the manifestos: if the next government is a coalition, the lack of fiscal detail in individual manifestos could translate into difficult negotiations over how to share a shrinking pot.
IFS: Significant financial pressures ahead
The IFS analysis provides the most detailed picture of the constraints that any incoming administration will face. David Phillips explained that the Welsh budget will be squeezed by a slowdown in the growth of UK government funding — the block grant from Westminster — combined with relentless upward pressure from health and social care spending. The IFS notes that while most parties promise improvements to the NHS, from building new hospitals to cutting waiting lists (over 5,000 patients in Wales wait more than two years for treatment, compared with fewer than 200 in England), none provides a fully costed plan that accounts for the likely funding gap. Similar gaps exist in other areas. Welsh Labour pledges to create 20,000 new childcare places; Plaid Cymru offers a “transformational” free childcare offer for children aged nine months to four years; the Green Party promises universal childcare. None of these pledges, the IFS argues, is matched by a clear explanation of how it will be funded when the Welsh government’s own spending plans remain unpublished beyond 2026-27.
The fiscal challenges extend beyond revenue spending. Major infrastructure projects — such as Labour’s new hospitals and Plaid Cymru’s housebuilding targets — require upfront capital that currently exceeds Wales’s borrowing capacity without either enhanced borrowing powers or private finance. The IFS has warned that even if borrowing is increased, the interest and repayment costs will further constrain the next Welsh government’s room for manoeuvre.
Phillips drew a direct political lesson from the current UK government’s experience: “As the current UK government has found out, not preparing the public for difficult choices prior to an election can come back to bite you politically when the electoral dust has settled.”